Short of full-blown war, US and Iran have let sense prevail

 

Ashraf Qureshi.

As the world braced for countries picking sides in the escalating situation in the Middle East, the US and Iran have been able to prevent their altercation from expanding into a full-blown war. US and European government sources have revealed that Iran deliberately avoided casualties in its 8 January retaliatory missile attacks on US bases in Iraq. 

The attacks were in response to the US killing of Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani who was targeted in a drone strike during his visit to Iraq. After the US’s tight-lipped response to the Iranian missiles hitting its bases in Iraq, speculations made rounds the entire day on the damages suffered by US forces. While the Iranian state-run television claimed the death of 80 US nationals, American officials maintain that there have been no casualties. 

The Deliberate Avoidance of Casualties by Iran

Three government sources who spoke to Reuters revealed that Iran deliberately avoided the US casualties so that the situation does not spiral out of control. But at the same time, Iran had to display resolve in the face of the killing of its top General.

A precisely calculated attack with more than a dozen missiles on the Al-Asad airbase and another establishment in Erbil was aimed at giving a message rather than inflicting damage. The missiles hit predetermined parts of the US facilities that were at the time not housing any personnel. 

Al-Asad base stations both American and Iraqi forces. Assessing the satellite pictures after the attack, Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California said that the Iranian missiles targeted the American portion of the base. Reuters believes three of the structures that were damaged appear to be aircraft maintenance hangars. A day later, two Russian made Katyusha rockets fell inside Baghdad’s Green Zone – one merely 100 meters from the US Embassy – but there was no claim of responsibility. 

The revelation that Iran tried to avoid escalation corroborates with the remarks of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif who stated that Iran took “proportionate measures” in self-defense but was not seeking a war with the US. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had termed the Iranian response a “slap on the face” of the US which was another carefully worded message revealing the intent behind the attack.

Trump’s Softening Rhetoric

In his much-awaited public appearance on the morning after the attack, US President Donald Trump seemed to have paid heed to the growing domestic criticism on the soundness of attacking the Iranian General. Moreover, the message Iran delivered by avoiding casualties had also done its part. 

Trump stated that the US does not necessarily have to respond to the attack on its military bases. He termed Iran’s avoidance of casualties as a sign that it was “standing down”. While he did some saber-rattling by speaking of the US’s military prowess, he overruled military action and announced additional economic sanctions without going into their details. 

Another highlight of his statement was a call to world powers to quit the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that the US drew unilaterally in 2018. In an encouraging development, he instead demanded a new nuclear with Iran. Under the 2015 deal, Iran was offered relief from sanctions in response to limiting its nuclear deal. Since the US attacked General Soleimani, Iran has announced an end to all its nuclear restrictions. 

A Multinational Full-Blown War Averted

Immediately after the killing of General Soleimani, support blocs started delineating as world leaders contacted the US and Iran. Russia and China released statements in support of Iran whereas Britain and Israel came out in support of the US while attempting to cool down the temperature.

The conflict had the potential to embroil many more nations as Iran threatened to bomb the Israeli city of Haifa and the Emirati city of Dubai in case of any further US attacks. 

Had the conflict morphed into a full-blown war, it would have severely affected the oil supply chains with unstable prices and uncertain shipping routes. The effect on global industries and economies could have spiraled out of control as most countries are already battling slowing growth rates. With sense prevailing on both sides, however, the situation seems under control for the time being. 

Update: An earlier version of this article included a section quoting a Canadian source who ruled out foul play in the crash of Ukraine Flight 752. Iran has now admitted to accidentally shooting down the airliner.

Finally, a breakthrough in US-Iran relations

Saleem Zahid.

The breakthrough in US-Iran relations came at the most unexpected time. President Donald Trump is undergoing an impeachment process and needs massive support from his voters over the validity of his radical approach to governance and foreign policy. A thaw in the US-Iran ties comes as a blessing. 

Meeting of US and Iranian Envoys at the UN

After trading barbs at the UN Security Council meeting on 19 December, US Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft reached up to her Iranian counterpart Majid Takht-Ravanchi to condole the death of a two-year-old girl. 

Mr. Ravanchi had spoken at length of how US sanctions had made medical care difficult for the Iranian people. The little girl died from a rare skin related disease, he said, because the country could not import special bandages for her. 

Despite coming hard upon each other during their speeches, a compassionate exchange of words was a welcome sign among the two bickering foes who have been at odds since the 1979 revolution in Iran. 

The exchange might seem insignificant but when seen with other corroborating events, there really has risen a possibility that we might be looking for a softening of stances on both sides.

Iranian President’s Visit to US Ally Japan

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani visited US’s close ally Japan on 20 December and discussed the 2015 nuclear deal with Japanese leadership. His visit comes at a time when European nations, along with Japan, are scrambling to revive the deal which the US unilaterally canceled in 2018. 

With the high profile visit, speculations gained significant traction that Iran was seeking a line to the US. Japan has maintained cautious relations with Iran and was one of the largest buyers of its crude oil till US sanctions stopped it from doing so. This year, on the formation of a US-led maritime security coalition to protect the Strait of Hormuz from the threat from Iran, Japan decided not to be a part of it. 

Japan enjoys the confidence of both the US and Iran and is well-positioned for acting as a trusted intermediary in solving one of the most longstanding security issues of the Middle East. 

Right after the Iranian delegation departed, Japanese President Shinzo Abe briefed President Trump in a lengthy phone call, giving confirmation to the presence of an indirect channel between the US and Iran.

Iranian president’s visit to Japan is a sign that he may finally be willing to come to the table. Backing for this notion comes from the fact that Iran’s request for the meeting came at a relatively short notice. Meanwhile, Iran also wants to show that it is not cocooning away from the world and is instead open to discuss thorny issues. 

Prisoner Exchange with the US

Earlier this month, the US and Iran exchanged prisoners in another thawing development. An American graduate student Xiyue Wang, held by Iran for three and a half years, was released in exchange for Masoud Soleimani, an Iranian scientist working on stem cell research and charged with exporting proteins not allowed for Iran. 

The American student was charged by the Iranian government for espionage but his relatively early release and his frequent calls with his family in the US show that he was only being kept as a bargaining chip. 

The prisoner exchange corroborates with other events that indicate the breakthrough in US-Iran relations. Just as the Iranian leader’s visit to Japan was held at a short notice, this exchange was the result of merely weeks of negotiations between American and Iranian officials. Such a process otherwise takes months and even years to bear positive results. 

US officials took the exchange positively with public appreciations. Brian Hook, US special representative for Iran, was especially upbeat on future diplomatic prospects. He expressed hope that the event may lead to broader discussions on consular affairs between the two nations. 

The Pinch of Salt

Ever since the prisoner exchange, Brian Hook has been sending positive signals to the Iranians. A week after the exchange, he declared that the US was open to dialogue. In the same breath, however, he stated that Iran remained a threat to international peace and security.

In the latest show of toughening up, the US imposed sanctions on Iranian judges who, according to it, carried out ‘miscarriage of justice in show trials’ against participants of the recent protests in the country. 

Although these sanctions primarily involved visa restrictions, other tougher ones have been disastrous for Iran’s economy. The oil-rich nation today exports only to a handful of countries that don’t cooperate with US policies. 

The US has blamed Iran for carrying out a proxy war against Saudi Arabia and, most recently, of carrying out direct attacks on Saudi oil refinery Aramco. Though the recent diplomatic overtures are a convincing signal of a breakthrough in US-Iran relations.