South Korea's Role in a Taiwan Contingency: Balancing Deterrence and Support

Ashraf Qureshi. 

South Korea's stance on its involvement in a Taiwan contingency has been characterized by a lack of explicit commitment. There is a possibility that South Korea would not engaged in discussions with the United States about this issue. However open-source information suggests a more nuanced perspective.

A cautious rebound in China's auto industry

 

By Iram Khan. 

As COVID-19 continues to subside in China, good news from one industry after another is making headlines. The latest being an unexpected jump in car sales. China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) has announced that premium and luxury car sales grew 28 percent year on year in May. 

Rohingya crisis in Myanmar can end with this Chinese project

Faheem Sarwar. 

The Rohingya crisis in Myanmar has a solution. China is constructing mega infrastructure projects in Asia and beyond under its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). One such project has landed in Myanmar’s coastal town of Kyaukpyu. 

Great power competition heats up with US deployment in the Pacific

 

Javed Ali.

With the announcement of a new US deployment in the Pacific region, great power competition is back on the global forefront. US military was engaged for decades in counter-insurgency operations in the Middle East but policymakers are now faced with a challenge that echoes the post World War II era.  

No Surprise: The US has already accessed Russian hypersonic missiles

 

Faheem Sarwar. 

Russia’s deployment of its Avangard hypersonic missiles does not come as a surprise since the US has already had access to them. This state of the art system is the world’s first and the only known hypersonic weapon. It travels at 27 times the speed of sound and is claimed by Russia to be capable of penetrating the US missile shield.

What Has Russia Declared so Far?

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the missiles are capable of carrying nuclear warheads and are able to hit targets anywhere in the world. Though their deployment locations have, understandably, not been revealed. 

These hypersonic weapons are installed atop an intercontinental ballistic missile where a hypersonic glide vehicle and the nuclear warhead form its payload. On their launch, they are flown by the missile to altitudes ranging from 25 to 60 miles (40 to 100 km). The glide vehicle then detaches and homes onto the target. The glide vehicles are maneuverable and follow a trajectory lower than that of ballistic missiles. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin was jubilant while announcing the weapon. He remarked about the edge Russia had achieved as no other country presently possesses the hypersonic capability. Western experts, however, have taken the achievement with a pinch of salt seeing the record of Russia’s weapon systems. 

How the US Accessed Russian Hypersonic Missiles?

The US accessed Russian hypersonic missiles under the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty). New START is a bilateral agreement between the two countries, aimed at discouraging a nuclear arms race. It was signed in 2010 and allows mutual weapon inspections so that the number of strategic nuclear missile launchers can be reduced. 

On 26 November 2019, US inspectors visited Russia and were given a tour of an Avangard facility under the inspection provisions of the New START. The exercise was part of measures to increase transparency in the nuclear programs of the two countries. 

The visit of US experts was announced by no less than the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. His ministry stated that the inspection was carried out to keep the treaty “viable and effective”.

The inspection was acknowledged also by the Executive Director of the United States’ Arms Control Association (ACA) Daryl Kimball. According to him, Russia demonstrated the weapon that was to be deployed on a ballistic missile. After Russia’s announcement of Avangard’s deployment, a US State Department official confirmed the November inspection but did not add any further comment. 

Expiring on 5 February 2021, this last remaining arms control treaty between the two has slim chances of renewal in light of the US’s pullout from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) in August 2019. Seeing the tendencies of US President Donald Trump, Russia has already expressed its willingness to extend the New START without any preconditions. If the US refuses the extension, Mr. Putin will clearly emerge exonerated.

Does the US Have Hypersonic Weapons?

The US started working on developing hypersonic weapons in 2000. The pace, however, remained slow since ground-based insurgency remained the major threat during the last two decades.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) had been extensively working on Program Falcon to develop these weapons. But after failed trials during 2010 and 2011, Congress pulled the plug on funding. As per recent reports though, it has resumed work on developing their engines. 

Later in 2018 when Russia was testing the Avangard system, the US Air Force announced that it was working with Lockheed Martin to develop its own hypersonic weapons. At the same time, Boeing is invested with a British company to develop their propulsion systems. 

During the last two decades, Russia and China were not engaged in counter-insurgency conflicts at the level of the US and remained focused on developing next-generation weapons. With their research now bearing results, the US has accelerated to cover the lag. 

• Related Article: US policies that gave birth to the Russia-China gas pipeline

Defence Secretary Mark Esper has made their development a priority as Congress received repeated warnings that Russian and Chinese missiles are increasingly becoming sophisticated and difficult to track and defeat. Esper believes the US will also be successful in showcasing a hypersonic weapon in its strategic arsenal in a couple of years. 

How to Counter Hypersonic Weapons

Till the time the US fields hypersonic weapons of its own, it is trying to employ countermeasures against those of its adversaries. 

Neutralizing hypersonic weapons is tricky since they travel more than five times the speed of sound, covering more than a mile in each second of their flight. This high speed makes them extremely difficult to detect, track and defeat. 

So the suggestion put up by US officials is to deploy sensors and interceptors in space that can carry out all of these actions. This, however, will give rise to counter-countermeasures and thus the dawn of space warfare. 

US President Donald Trump has been pursuing the establishment of a dedicated military branch for space since 2018. The House and Senate have reached an agreement to fund a Space Force and the US Space Command has been upgraded as a unified combatant command. 

Forecast

In light of the Russian deployment, US efforts to achieve the publicly perceived balance of power will accelerate and a homegrown hypersonic weapon will be announced before 2022. President Trump and his security team have this on their priority list. 

The hypersonic weapon developed by the US will have better capability since there doesn’t seem to be an urgency of achieving parity without due research. One area to watch is the technology that the US’s re-entry vehicle will adopt. The gliding mechanism of the Russian vehicle is relatively slow and is prone to defensive measures.

Chinese technology is quick to follow global trends and defense is no exception. In 2018, China had successfully tested its first hypersonic aircraft. With the country’s scientific progress, we should expect China’s announcement of hypersonic weapons coming out at any time. 

And finally, as mentioned earlier, the dawn of space warfare. Unless the UN Outer Space Treaty is updated to restrict deployment of any weapon rather than just nuclear weapons of WMDs in space, the global security situation is going to get more complex and more resource-intensive. 

All that we know of phase one US-China trade deal so far

Faheem Sarwar. 

The United States and China announced the much-awaited phase one of their trade deal on 13 December, sending a sigh of relief in markets across the world. Details of the deal continue to trickle in since the final draft is still not out. Here is what we know of it so far.

US Commitments in Phase One

Suspension: The US will not implement the additional 15% tariff on $160 billion worth of Chinese goods that was to come into effect from 15 December 2019. 

Reduction: US tariffs on $120 billion worth of Chinese goods will be reduced from 15% to 7.5%. These include items like bluetooth headphones, smart speakers and televisions. 

Continuation: 25% tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports will remain unchanged.

Chinese Commitments in Phase One

Since the tariffs were initiated by the US while demanding a change in China’s trade practices, Chinese commitments are more of policy nature than those related to tariffs. 

Issues covered: According to Chinese officials, this phase will cover issues related to: 

• Protection of intellectual property.
• Transfer of technology.
• Expansion of trade. 
• Expansion of energy imports.
• Expansion of services imports.
• Purchase of agricultural products. The US puts the annual value of these purchases between $40 billion to $50 billion over the next two years, but the Chinese side has not put it into writing yet.

Office of the US trade Trade Representative (USTR) added these issues to the list: 

• Financial services.
• Currency. 
• Foreign exchange.
• $200 billion worth of imports from US over the next two years. These range from airplanes to food items.

Suspension: Chinese officials stated that they would not be imposing tariffs on US products that were scheduled for 15 December. As the tit-for-tat imposition had been ensuing since the start of the trade war, these tariffs could have been as high as 15% on $160 billion of goods that the US was planning to introduce. 

When Will the Deal Be Signed?

The United States and China will sign the trade deal in early January according to US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. Until then, speculations will be rife as to what exactly has China agreed in return of the suspended US tariffs. 

We can expect changes in the commitments made by the negotiators as the agreement is shuttling back and forth between Washington DC and Beijing for approvals, legal reviews, and translations. 

Lighthizer also refuted the possibility of presidents of the two countries meeting for the signing. It will be, instead, ministerial-level reps who will be meeting to sign the final draft of the deal. 

Phase Two of the Trade Deal

US Trade Representative stated that his government will not wait for the 2020 presidential election for taking up phase two of the deal. Whereas, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin believes that it will come in stages but its timeline is yet to be determined. 

Future of the Trade War

The US is not planning to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports. Although the Trade Representative links that with the intent of his Chinese counterparts. 

No promises have been made by the US on future rollbacks of the remaining tariffs. The US is skeptical of Chinese commitments and is thus not committing to any future concessions. 

With a looming threat of President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial and the presidential election due next year, political difficulties for him point out he will not be upsetting his voters from ‘farmer states’ where the majority of his vote bank lies. The protracted trade war had severely shaken their confidence in Trump’s ability to achieve the tariffs’ objectives. That means the deal will certainly go through in some form or the other. 

No End in Sight

When phase one of the deal was signed, global markets responded but only with a slight positivity. The response reflected investor sentiment that the deal was merely a temporary relief in a battle that will last much longer. 

The trade war has transformed from a single individual’s wish – i.e. Donald Trump’s – to a bipartisan issue in the US. China hawks in the administration have thrown weight behind Trump’s decision to challenge the growing clout of China in international trade. 

Now that China has moved on from producing low-end products like apparel and home appliances to raising 5G networks, calls are growing among US lawmakers that their country’s technological and economic superiority has to be defended. For this very reason, the imposition of tariffs on China is finding support and is not likely to go away soon. 

CLSA, a Hong Kong-based investment group, predicts that the trade war will continue for at least three more years but with the possibility of more phased deals. 

High expectations from the Japan, South Korea, China summit

Ashraf Qureshi. 

Despite being communists and capitalists, American allies and adversaries, mutual partners and historical rivals, leaders of three Asian nations are getting together to come up with ways of engaging an unruly neighbor. On 24 December, Japan and South Korea will be joining China in the central Chinese city of Chengdu and deciding how to handle North Korea’s increasingly worrying nuclear ambitions.

Aims of the Japan, South Korea, China Summit

Apart from carrying out a massive volume of regional trade, cooperation among the three historically opposing countries has been rare. But the threat from North Korea has provided them a common ground to pursue a joint strategy. 

When they sit in Chengdu, the leaders will be reviewing the latest security situation, boosting trilateral cooperation and coming up with ways of containing the nuclearization of the region. To be precise, its a sitting aimed solely at North Korea. 

Traditionally China has enjoyed influence over the communist nation’s leadership and, at several points in recent history, it has mended ways only after intervention by China. Japan and South Korea, on the other hand, are considered rivals by North Korea. Both being capitalist states, democracies and American allies are prime targets of its ire. 

Solving the North Korean riddle, that has surpassed generations of leaders in the three countries, is not easy. Yet the will among them is an encouraging sign with a glimmer of a positive outcome from the Chengdu summit. 

Saving GSOMIA

Japan and South Korea have signed an intelligence-sharing pact that allows them to exchange information on nuclear and missile activities of North Korea. Known as General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), the pact was on the brink of collapse after both countries came to trade blows owing to their historical differences.

Despite being US partners in efforts against denuclearization of the region, South Korea’s intention of discontinuing GSOMIA’s renewal sent worrying signals across the globe. Although it reversed the decision hours before the expiry of the agreement, bickering among Japan and South Korea has emboldened North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, raised his threats and increased his missile tests.

The historical dispute, stemming from the forced labor of Koreans by Japan during its colonization of the peninsula, morphed into an economic one but was saved from turning into a security headache. Economic concessions’ announcement by their leaders and an intervention by the US – which also benefits from GSOMIA – eventually saved the agreement but the shaky alliance is far from getting stable. The historical issues still remain unresolved and a trade war of their own is showing no signs of slowing down. 

People watch a TV screen showing a file image of a North Korean rocket during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station (AP Photo)

The Trade War Between Japan and South Korea

Timeline of the trade war between Japan and South Korea starts with South Korea’s supreme court ruling in 2018 that Japan must compensate victims of forced labor. Japan immediately made it clear that all issues pertaining to the forced labor have been settled under a 1965 agreement between the two countries.

The disputing claims became nationalist and political issues and soon spiraled out of control with both setting up economic hurdles for each other. In July 2019, Japan tightened control over the export of materials crucial to producing semiconductors.

South Korea’s electronics production industry was directly threatened by this move. Semiconductors are vital for its economy as it is one of the world’s top electronics manufacturing nations. 

When South Korea lashed back at Japan, the latter upped the ante by removing it from a “white list” of trusted trade partners in October. South Koreans have since been calling for boycotting Japanese products and tourism to hurt the Japanese economy. 

The upcoming summit will be a unique opportunity for the two countries to scale back their rhetoric and cool down the populist narratives that are taking a toll on their economies. 

China-South Korea Ties after the Missile Defence Row

Historically, South Korea has been closer to China than Japan. But US actions to counter the North Korean threat have at times tested their relationship. 

In 2017, the US installed the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea to intercept any possible missiles coming from North Korea. The system comes with a long-range radar that can see flying objects well into Chinese territory. 

China raised strong objections on THAAD’s installation, terming it a move to upset the security balance of the region. The dispute seeped into social and economic realms, sending shockwaves into the South Korean economy. Its tourism, cosmetics and entertainment industries suffered heavily while bearing the brunt of China’s economic power. 

Earlier this month, however, both China and South Korea decided to move on and reset their ties as China appeared satisfied with the intentions of the American missile defense system. Both at the receiving end of tariffs from the US and its ally Japan are now looking at increasing high-level exchanges and undo three years of economic challenges.

Japan’s Lessons for China in the Trade War with the US

China is facing a trade war with the US that Japan has since long defeated. Although the US considers China a strategic rival, what it did to Japan was a plethora of protectionist tariffs thrown upon an ally. China is facing the same person – in the form of the US president – who, during the peak of the US trade war with Japan, accused Japan of “systematically sucking the blood out of America“. 

During the 70s, the trade balance between Japan and the US was highly tilted in favor of the former. The result was limiting imports from and imposing tariffs on Japan, deteriorating relations between the two to levels not seen since the second world war. 

Although the Japanese economy remained stalled for more than 10 years, China today has more leverage by being the world’s second-largest economy. Meanwhile, a strong rapport between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has enabled them to exchange notes on how to tackle the threat once pitched against Japan. 

The coming trilateral summit will allow them to deepen their cooperation in the face of the pressing security and economic issues. Japan came out stronger from its trade war with the US and China is looking exactly at that. Even if Japan is today closer to the US than it is to China, there still exists an eastern connection that will eventually let them sort out their problems. 

The Chinese Axis of Japan and South Korea

The complexity of Asia’s geopolitics can be fathomed from the entangled alliances that present joint postures against threats in one direction while conflicting positions against threats in the other. 

Japan and China hold different views on the South China Sea but similar on US trade tactics and North Korean missiles. South Korea and China hold different views on US involvement in the region but the same on historical disputes with Japan. 

The Chengdu summit is expected to unify their stance on North Korea. Trade and historical differences among the three are letting their nuclear neighbor grow its arsenal unchecked. Fortunately, they realize that and are willing to sit down and discuss. 

On North Korea, sanctions are not working, top-level diplomatic engagement is not working and neither is any kind of appeasement. China, Japan, and South Korea can come up with a regional solution to convince Mr. Kim Jong-un to give peace a chance, open up the country and initiate an era of economic prosperity for his people. 

Japan and Russia have to move on from Kuril Islands

Sidra Zahoor. 

Japan-Russia relations have been associated with the dispute at the Kuril Islands for several years. Although they have tried to find a diplomatic solution since 2012, several sore points still exist.

Focused on progressing Japan, Shinzō Abe has been involved in improving political regulations in his country to fulfil his larger plans. By bringing free trade agreements and constitutional revisions into discussion, he has initiated several projects. At the same time, he has positioned himself as one of the most influential figures in Japan’s political landscape.

Why is the settlement important?

Shinzō Abe has held around 27 meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Abe is not only sticking to core economic priorities of Japan but has also been intending to maintain the country’s role in international politics.

When we talk about the failures of the Abe administration, they comprise of the issues with a pacifist constitution, outlawing the management of an armed force, lower pace of domestic development and hardly any leverage at the international front and at the UN Security Council. Keeping in mind its discussions with North Korea and the relations with other neighbors, they have been quite far from productive. After the recent spat with South Korea dented their key alliance, Japan is left with less options of counterbalancing China.

Life is often difficult under the harsh weather of Kuril Islands (Al Jazeera Photo)

In such a situation, negotiations with Russia have become significant as they offer a helping hand to Japan’s current conditions. Putin and Abe have a working relationship as the personal connections in the Russo-Japanese negotiations have in the past proved fruitful.

Being a participant of the Russia initiated Eastern Economic Forum that makes use of Japanese investments, Abe is being increasingly considered one of Putin’s close acquaintances. Having said that, their bilateral relations and territorial disputes can be solved as both states appear to be positive.

The options with Japan and Russia

Even though the public opinion over Russian military and Kuril islands are still the basic obstacles, the negotiations between Russia and Japan can take place as per the 1956 Joint Declaration. This refers to the fact that Shinzō Abe might agree to accept the areas of Habomai and Shikotan. Moreover, the softening of Japanese negotiations has encouraged Russia to show some diplomatic flexibility to address the concerns of Shinzō Abe.

Moscow can establish a close association with Tokyo to allow it to contribute to Russia’s growth. To open up to the needs of both, Putin and Abe need to agree to an agenda that can facilitate the islands’ transition, implement peace treaties and sign up for collaborations.

On a temporary basis, a possible agreement can be made that includes a mutual authority and overseeing the Kuril Islands. Likewise, implementation of separate agreements over financial collaboration and non-involvement of military can help to pave the road of success in Russo-Japanese negotiations. Above all, signing of a peace agreement is also an option to ensure social and economic development of both nations.

If an agreement can be reached by the year 2022, it will affect a positive breakthrough at several levels. Asia will experience development and an improved safety environment with the normalization of Japan-Russia relations.

China makes headway in the 5G race

Javed Ali. 

In the 5G race, China has made a new headway by launching the service commercially. The new-age, cutting edge, high-speed communication is now available in 50 cities across the country. 

The service is only available in selected areas in the other two countries – the United States and South Korea – that offer 5G so far. Its grand rollout in China last week is unmatchable with what the others have achieved so far. 

The 5G tussle

The launch comes against the backdrop of US efforts to challenge China’s 5G ambitions. When President Donald Trump said that “the race to 5G is on and America must win”, he probably wanted to reach the finishing line first by not letting his competitor play. As he banned Huawei, the leading Chinese 5G infrastructure provider, from acquiring US technology and from letting it deploy its network in the US, China’s plans appeared to have hit a wall.

Huawei’s profits received a blow after the US ban but did not fall to a level where they could hamper its deployment plans. Not all countries share the US’s concerns about the possibility of backdoors in Huawei’s hardware and have decided to continue contracting the company. 

Huawei teamed up with China’s state-owned telecom operators, China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom, to bring 5G services to their subscribers inland and signed 60 contracts with carriers in other parts of the world. 

The 5G race is not a zero-sum game

As against the beliefs of President Trump, the 5G race is not something where a country has to lose for the other to win. The world is merely undergoing a technological upgrade that is, naturally, resulting in a competition. But history explains that 5G can be adopted through global cooperation just like technological upgrades of industrialization, computers and the internet were. 

Foundation of the ultimate medium of connectivity, the internet, lies is international collaboration. As we are increasing the speed of our connections with each other and with things, the need for working together is all the more important. 

The battle for technological supremacy stems global growth. It disallows developing countries to take advantage of the latest advancements in overcoming their problems. It also causes a diminishing of the cooperative spirit among the scientific community for employing their gains in tackling the day’s challenges. 

Europe is very much cognizant of this fact. It refused to ban Huawei despite extensive pressure and continues to partner with Chinese companies for the 5G deployment. There is a learn-learn approach in their collaborations, lifting industries of both regions. 

China’s acceleration of self-reliance

An unintended consequence of the 5G tussle between the US and China was an acceleration of the latter’s self-reliance efforts. Already acquiring an edge in the field of 5G, Chinese companies are now aiming to improve their chip-making capabilities. Since China is a major supplier of rare earth materials, it is only a matter of time that the hardware expertise of local companies rises at par with those in the US. 

Even the commercial launch of 5G services has been ahead of the schedule. Previously planned for release in 2020, last week’s announcement by the state-owned telecom operators came as a surprise for many industry observers. The acceleration of self-reliance efforts was not anticipated to be progressing at this pace. 

An innovative edge

A major contributive factor in China making headway in 5G is innovation being a national policy. Although the service has been commercially launched just now, it has been in medical and research use for quite some time. Hospitals and medical institutions have been using it to carry out remote surgeries and intelligent locomotive systems have been using it to transmit data to their analyzing systems. 

Owing to the innovation drive, top Chinese phone makers Huawei and Oppo have launched 5G enabled cell phones. US-based Apple is, however, yet to announce one. 

That’s because China has a clearly defined roadmap of how it wants to leverage innovation to be the global tech leader. A plan released in 2016 states that by 2030 it will be able to achieve its aim. 

The 5G race is not for a single country to win. It is the future of how mankind will connect. One nation’s win can be that of another as well. The need is to disengage from impeding achievements of perceived rivals and move forward with a joint multinational strategy.

Battling fake news in Thailand

Saleem Zahid. 

In battling fake news, Thailand has just upped the ante. By unveiling a center dedicated to finding and reacting to fake news online, it has offered hope to witch hunt survivors and, at the same time, spooked free speech activists. 

The stated areas in which the center will counter misinformation – and, of course, disinformation – are economy, finance, health, government policy and natural disasters. Whenever fake news will affect peace and security of the nation, the center will come into play. 

Concerns by rights groups

Rights groups and opposition political parties have expressed strong resentment against the anti-fake news center. Fearing a silencing of government critics, they are calling it a censorship tool in the hands of a government that doesn’t qualify as a true democracy in their view. 

Meanwhile, sending a sigh of relief, the ministers clarified that the center will not have any powers of arrest or legal action and later that it will not be “a tool to support the government or any individual”. If a false news item is detected through the center’s social listening system, it will be flagged to relevant authorities and corrections will be issued through the center’s social media platforms.

Still, an encouraging development 

Like many Asian countries, literacy levels in Thailand are not as high as those in advanced nations. Social media usage, the main vehicle of fake news, is meanwhile extremely high. This combination offers a fertile ground for the spread of unverified information. 

The developing world has been especially affected by the rise of fake news. A spate of lynchings in India, accusations on an array of entities in Sri Lanka after the Eastern bombings and, most distressingly, a genocide in Myanmar caused by the radicalization of a community otherwise considered peaceful.

Radicalism fueled by the internet is one of the main problems of the day since it quickly morphs to violence. Religious extremism in the Middle East was largely stimulated with propaganda content of extremists with half-baked facts mixed with entirely fabricated statistics. 

In the developed world, radicalism has mostly been race-based, yet instilled majorly by the fake news machinery. The algorithms of social media websites, that mold our newsfeeds into what we are supposed to like the most, do not differentiate between a healthy and unhealthy piece of content. Running in a closed hamster wheel of consuming radical content has the power of reinforcing a perfectly sane individual’s fringe ideas into hardcore beliefs and turning him into an extremist. 

On social media, the two most common sellable commodities are emotions and conspiracy theories. A growing number of people share news items without reading them because of strong emotions in the headlines or in the images attached with them. Likewise, conspiracy theories, sometimes outrageously intriguing, are shared by people thinking they are propagating a new angle to an issue or while simply considering themselves the first ones to break it to their social circle.

Thailand’s problem with fake news

Thailand has its peculiar problems with fake news. With laws that criminalize defamation of the royal family, the spread of incorrect information has been a source of polarization in the society. The same has been creating problems during the times of natural disasters and financial crises. 

Popular messaging apps in the country frequently hold “Stop Fake News” workshops aimed at enabling their users to stay safe on online platforms and check the propagation of “fake news” and misinformation.  

The paradox of battling fake news

When newspapers published false stories, their number was few and the public quickly earmarked them for resorting to such tactics. 

Now, however, every social media user is a media outlet in himself. He can start publishing the moment he logs on to the internet and, with the right ingredients, spread information, right or wrong, across the world. This unfathomable volume of publishers makes it important to keep a check on falsehood and fight for the truth. 

But who exactly is going to be the vanguard in the fight for the truth? Governments with their insatiable desires of stifling dissent and political opposition? Internet users with their influencing power behind a cloak of anonymity? Or the social media companies that have amassed powers on par with those of governments? 

This is a paradox the world is presently stuck in. Whether to let free speech flow into realms of falsehood or to introduce checks that have the potential to be misused. 

The biggest role in curbing fake news lies with the platforms that are used to spread them, – that is, the social media companies. In their quest for growth, they have expanded their user base to such a level that they are unable to moderate the content. Although Facebook boasts employing nearly 30,000 moderators it is still far from overcoming this problem.

The corporate sector worked hard to introduce a culture of social responsibility. But with the rise of internet 2.0, the preference of several companies shifted to expansion from their pledge to keep their customers in confidence. 

Some positive developments

After a considerable outrage over alleged foreign interference in the US presidential election of 2016, political advertising on social media has been a topic of fierce debate. Some candidates of the upcoming election have been accused of spreading lies in their advertisements, while others, to prove the point, deliberately put false information in their ads. 

Seeing the pressure developing, Twitter has announced an end to political advertising on its platform. Since it too has a large user base with limited resources of fact-checking, this is a positive development. 

Facebook, on the other hand, believes that it is for the citizens to decipher false information from the correct. Experts believe that the company cannot take this stance too far and will eventually succumb to the pressure building from politicians, media and its users. 

Establishing anti-fake news centers and introducing truth checking mechanisms by governments is a measure in the right direction only if the right to free speech is not suppressed. Equally important is the citizens’ right to access correct information. And for that, the responsibility lies with the government.

Reaching out to China with the situation in Hong Kong

Iram Khan. 

The situation in Hong Kong is a moment of reflection for countries that advertise their ethos as the only way for progress. We live in a pluralistic world that is an assortment of ideologies, creeds, and theories. It draws its greatness from contrast rather than from monotony of drilled down beliefs. 

Foreign elements that are trying to instill their own version of worldview into Hong Kong citizens have caused a massive loss to the city’s economy and suffering for the silent majority as well as for the vocal – and often violent – minority. Businesses are feeling the heat and the trading system has been severely affected. 

Before a point of no return is reached, the protesters need to recall how Hong Kong has seen exceptional prosperity under China and wields the potential to further expand its economy. Home to 7.5 million people, it also has to look after those among them who are underprivileged and are losing the most from the turmoil.

Ever since its accession, Hong Kong has been the bridge to China. The financial hub is a testing ground for first-time investors who want to experience Chinese culture and consumers’ response to new products and services. In 1997, it contributed to nearly one-fifth of China’s GDP. As it accelerated the opening up process manifold, many cities learned from Hong Kong and started contributing at a greater rate.

The special administrative privileges Hong Kong enjoys are provisioned under China’s right to incorporate policies as per its own peculiar conditions. The two systems, efficiently functioning side by side, prove that alternative models of development are very much practical. 

Hong Kong accelerated the opening up process of China manifold (Bloomberg Photo)

If there are any doubts about the Chinese model, they can be allayed after analyzing its successes. No other country has lifted as many people out of poverty as China has. Also, no other country is taking up technological innovation as a national priority in the manner China is. Its enterprises are spearheading the drive to deploy secure 5G networks and, second only to the US, its Artificial Intelligence capabilities are growing at an astounding pace. 

In addition to that, the negative list of sectors – where foreign investment is restricted – is continually shrinking. The GDP growth rate might appear to be slowing but would be calling for celebrations if the current figures were achieved elsewhere. In fact, the technological, social and economic improvements in China are paving the way for the world to move forward. Take for example the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), lifting infrastructure in developing countries to make them contributing players in global supply chains. 

During these years of advancement, China follows a policy of non-interference in other nations’ internal matters. Coming from a country that has maintained somewhat of an equilibrium between its engagements with the East and the West, the author has ample observation on how China’s approach towards inland policies of its partners is distinctive. 

When doing business, China treats laws, values, and traditions as the prerogative of the hosts. It does not tend to dictate how affairs of other territories should be run, what political setups should be adopted and by what means issues should be dealt with. Certain Western countries, however, are renowned for doing business abroad and bringing with them unsolicited advisories on social, economic, security and political practices. 

It needs to be understood that global governance has evolved from multi-polar to bi-polar to uni-polar and then back to multi-polar. The factors guiding the international order are now diverse. Despite the emergence of a relatively homogenized culture, civilizations are still retaining their unique characteristics with each offering lessons to learn. But believing that only one system can save us may be stemming our quest for making our planet a better place. 

What is required at present is a respectful regard to the values that have brought stability to places where they are in vogue. An understanding of the disparate world will form the basis of coexistence and highlight commonalities instead of enforcing own ideals. 

Our resources are limited. They may not last forever if we do not collaborate. While several Western economies are shrinking, they cannot afford the bygone Cold War in any form. Instead of fighting the so-called trade wars, growth needs to be stimulated as the scars of the 2008 recession are still fresh.       

Those who do not intend to keep the bridges to China open, despite the situation in Hong Kong, will miss out on the greatest success story we have ever seen. Seven decades ago, the Chinese nation avowed to rise. After experimenting, stumbling, and then rising while learning from mistakes, it wrote the history book of its prosperity. The rest of us need to maintain our connection with this civilization which is on the road to becoming the next beacon for the industrious world.

Japan-South Korea tension sees a ray of hope

Ashraf Qureshi. 

The protracted Japan-South Korea tension is finally seeing a thaw after straining the region’s economy and shaking an alliance that aims to keep a check on North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.  

Reuters, quoting the Japanese news agency Kyodo, reported that the military and diplomatic partners intend to study plans for a joint economic program to rekindle the progress they had made under close cooperation since an attempt to bury their pasts in a 1965 treaty. 

Although government officials from both sides have refuted the news, the discussion around it has raised hopes of a possible patch up. The unmanned source from South Korean foreign ministry that denied these plans, however, confirmed the existence of communication between them to cool off the tensions.  

The joint economic program 

As per the details revealed so far, the formation of a joint plan was being considered for companies from both countries to push economic progress. Japanese believe that compensation for South Korea’s forced-laborers from World War II is presently not on the cards. To address the sensitive issue, instead of issuing compensation for the laborers, a fund is being considered to spur economic cooperation.  

The fund is to be set up by the South Korean government and businesses where Japanese companies would participate to ease the economic tensions. This will provide a face-saving for both countries against their rigid stances over their historical issues. At the same time, it will allow them to address their present economic challenges. 

Flare in the tension

Raw nerves received a jolt last year when the South Korean Supreme Court ordered Japanese companies to compensate some of the laborers. Things quickly got out of hand as nationalist sentiments flared in both countries, resulting in a progressive escalation that has left their partners worried. 

Japan believes that under the 1965 treaty with South Korea, all financial issues pertaining to the forced-labor in World War II have been settled, leaving no further option for their compensation. South Koreans, however, consider the terms of that agreement unfair and not adequately prepared by the leadership of that time. 

South Korean Supreme Court’s decision followed an economic response from Japan, restricting high-tech exports to South Korea. 

With several of its high-value industries under existential threat, South Korea raised the issue to a strategic level by announcing that it does not intend to renew General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), a pact that allows information sharing among the two on North Korea’s nuclear and missile activity. 

GSOMIA has been in place since 2016 and will be expiring this November. The possibility of its non-renewal has also left the United States worried as it relied upon the agreement to keep a check on North Korea. 

There have been several protests in both countries over the latest standoff and businesses that operated across borders are suffering. Already causing social misunderstandings, it can spiral into creating waves at the global level. 

A fragile but strategic alliance

The Japan-South Korea tension has placed the spotlight on the two allies’ effective check so far on North Korean militaristic designs. With even China taking a cautious approach to Pyongyang’s ambitions and using its influence on Kim Jong Un to bring it to the table with US President Donal Trump, the alliance is extremely significant. 

Japan and South Korea have long been playing the good-cop-bad-cop. Japanese approach has been to increase the pressure on North Korea. Whereas South Korea – understandably, because of the divided families over the border and more social closeness with the North – adopts a more reconciliatory attitude. Both have been equally effective. 

Post Cold War geopolitics of Asia have considerably changed with the economic rise of China. The world, as well as the Asia-Pacific, is no more divided on communist-capitalist lines. Today, South Korea finds itself closer to China than it does to Japan. Its interests are increasingly aligning with China’s maritime silk route that offers greater connectivity and better integration with global supply chains. 

Japan’s long term strategic partner, the United States, is receding into its own borders. Trump administration’s policies of discontinuing America’s role as the world’s policeman and incidents of appalling abandonment of its allies have left countries like Japan looking for alternative balancing measures. 

In such a scenario, South Korea and Japan’s willingness to partner with each other may have diminished, yet the talk of a joint economic program is an encouraging development. It will reduce the effects of an already slowing global economy, improve the region’s security and help them to bury their contentious past. 

China’s latest commitment to free trade

Iram Khan. 

Call it a trade war or a desperate attempt by the US to adjust its inefficiencies, the protraction is proving at least one thing: China will go out of its way to uphold the international free trade system built and matured during the last century. 

As the opening up process of the Chinese economy continues, new measures are coming up and demonstrating the country’s commitment to free trade – latest being the launch of six new Free Trade Zones (FTZs). Introduced for the first time in 2013, these zones have been termed one of the boldest moves in China’s reforms. They allowed business in fields that were, at that time, not accessible to foreign investors and provided a window to the Chinese market. 

The latest FTZs have been launched in coastal regions as well as in other border provinces. Their geographical locations in Shandong, Yunnan, Guangxi, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, and Hebei reveal that China is planning to boost land-based transactions along with seaborne shipments and cater to the demands of different regions. Each covers a range of sectors from the marine industry to health and finance. 

FTZs have been playing a central role in China’s pursuit of development that is based on fair trade. After it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), several steps were required to be taken to bring the economy on par with international standards. It had to liberalize its regime and inculcate a predictable environment in line with WTO rules. The FTZs debuted, according to Premier Li Keqiang, as “icebreakers for further opening up”. The process now continues in a staggered manner so that any corrective measures can be timely identified and applied.

These special zones have consistently facilitated the entry of foreign enterprises. They shifted the approach from outlining allowed areas of investment to one that specified only negative areas. A foreign project does not need to apply for confirmation from the government if it is not included in the negative list. This concept is immensely helpful in reducing paperwork and cutting red tape. 

The negative list approach has been augmenting the decentralization of authority to bring in more investment. It undergoes periodic revisions wherein the restricted areas are systematically reduced. The latest revision to the nationwide list in June this year slashed it from 48 areas to 40 and in one free zone from 45 to 37. 

The FTZs are also spurring liberalization of customs in China. As costs are reduced, they appeal to a larger consumer base. Consequently, consumption rises giving a boost to economic growth. Another pay-off of the liberalization is that export of services can be focused as much as that of manufacturing. Although the rise of China has largely depended upon industrial development, scaling the service sector has even greater potential in accelerating the growth. 

In the past, firms could register with Chinese authorities, build a factory and just start with their production lines. Now, however, China is catering to external and internal markets’ demands of high-end commodities which rely on sophisticated and efficient facilities. Likewise, the expertise level of talent that is now required is far higher. This is where FTZs come into play. They are attracting big-ticket industries with strong policy-level backing from the government. Returns on investment are increasing and causing a push to the high-quality national growth.  

The recently launched FTZs will be experimenting with innovative policies related to administrative functioning of the zones, managing of investment and attracting foreign talent. The government aims to ultimately replicate these practices across the country. The procedures followed in FTZs are evolving and policymakers are learning how they can be molded as per local conditions. Once they have been customized by fulfilling all domestic peculiarities, their countrywide implementation will completely liberalize the Chinese economy and enable it to expand its worldwide contribution. 

The evil of protectionism, meanwhile, has resurfaced and is hampering production around the world. If it spirals out of control, it will undo the hard-earned global prosperity. The bulwark against protectionism in the form of limited or waived tariffs in FTZs makes cross border flow of goods and capital flexible for all the stakeholders. 

The benefits of multilateralism and free trade are not only important for China but also for the rest of the world. The tariff spree initiated by the US is discouraging businesses and, in many cases, forcing companies to downsize. Shockwaves from this unwise strategy are being felt by all those connected with the supply chains between the US and China. Launch of the new FTZs at this time is a welcome step that will help offset some of the effects of the tariff induced international down growth.

Climate change in Vietnam is changing lives

Waheed Akram. 

The waterways, the highlands and the cities, all areas are feeling the brunt of climate change in Vietnam. As the first world refuses to reduce its carbon emissions, Vietnam along with other developing nations suffer the most without even contributing as much to the emissions.

In the Mekong River delta, water is life. The canals and channels are not only a means of transportation but also a source of irrigation for the crops.

With the rising sea levels, however, the farmers in the Delta are hit the worst. Rice is the main crop. Is the salinity is rising it is getting more and more difficult to plant rice. the sea line is intruding at a place that has reduced three annual rice crops to just one. During the dry season the saltwater goes upstream and contaminates the freshwater resources.

The shortage of freshwater is even affecting the rearing of animals. Farmers find it difficult to fulfill their washing and drinking needs, what to say about fulfilling those of their animals. Malnutrition of livestock will further deteriorate the economic conditions of the farmers. So it is a two pronged threat for them.

Agricultural experts are now recommending farmers to grow modified rice types which can withstand the salt water. Another recommendation has been to shift to economic practices and the types of crops which are more suitable for brackish water.

The rising sea levels are a threat for the cities as well. Urban centres are seeing flooding more than ever. Not even regarded Venice of the East, during the rainy season many city streets start resembling canals. 

Tourism is the main source of capital for many Vietnamese cities. With the increase in flooding, the sector has been adversely affected. As it degrades the transportation network and reduces the revenue of businesses, it ultimately shrinks the tourism sector.

The highlands may be safe from the rising sea levels but climate change is causing spells of drought. summers are getting hotter and water shortages area proving disastrous for domestic use and for crops. 

The unpredictability of weather is forcing farmers to switch there traditionally grown crops. They had been working on the same crops for centuries and had honed their methods to achieve highest yields. Shifting to new types of crops will require accumulating new experience and expertise which will result in loss of valuable profits.

It is high time for the industrially advanced nations to cut their carbon emissions to address the challenges of climate change that entire world is facing. Due regard needs to be paid to the problems of developing world which are not even of their own making.

Artificial Intelligence in China is not the future - it’s the present

Faheem Sarwar. 

The age of Artificial Intelligence in China has arrived. It is here, it is now and it is asking for more. The demand for talent is so high that the government had to push universities to promote AI education. Will the present generation, and the next, be able to match this drive is something that does seem possible, but the industry is growing and its appetite for human resource is voracious.

AI + X is an interdisciplinary approach being encouraged in universities to integrate AI with subjects like physics, sociology,psychology, biology, and mathematics among others. Dedicated AI departments have been introduced from Jilin to Nanjing and some universities are even collaborating with private companies to train their students. Apart from being teaching institutions, universities are also cradles of research and thus the vanguards of AI.

The industry itself is presenting a progressive outlook. Over4,000 firms in China today are AI-based and the government is looking for the business to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2030. The capital Beijing with its entrepreneurial atmosphere is emerging as an AI hub. According to data from Beijing Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology (BMCEIT), the city hosts more than 1,070 AI companies which is 26 percent of the country’s count. 1,237 AI companies from around China have acquired venture investments and 431 out of these, or 35percent, are from Beijing.

Rokid, a well-funded startup from Hangzhou, is ready to mass produce its custom AI chip for voice recognition and is planning to create China’s first AI Operating System. The country’s largest carmaker, SAIC Motor, is also it’s first to launch an in-house AI lab.While focusing on cloud computing, big data, and business application, the Shanghai-headquartered company aims to put smart technology to use in automobile production, automobile products, rental service, and logistics.

Kunlun might be a famous mountain range in western China but it is the name of Baidu’s indigenous cloud-to-edge AI chip as well, which according to it’s CEO, has a computational capability 30 times faster than the latest field-programmable gate array based AI accelerator. Baidu Brain is another ambitious project by the tech giant, adding a human touch in machines to enable them to see, hear and understand better.

China’s extensive use of AI in the medical field is easing load from hospitals and improving skills of doctors.Alibaba in Shanghai, for instance, is not only using data for patient prediction and doctor allocation, but in Zhejiang it is developing AI-based diagnosis tools to analyze CT scans and MRIs. In a country where more than 2.7 million people give in to cancer each year, Tencent is developing Miying – an AI clinical diagnostic system which learns from big data, examines endoscopy images and gives feedback in 4 seconds with an accuracy reaching as high as 90 percent.

Pitched against AI last month, experienced physicians were seen at an euroimaging contest in Beijing. In the two rounds of diagnosing brain tumors and predicting hematoma expansion, an AI system named BioMind scored a clear2:0 win. This does not mean AI will one day be replacing the human doctor.Instead, it will only act how GPS does for a driver today.

AI companies are proving immenselyhelpful to the government in ensuring public security. SenseTime, a valuablestart-up, has installed vision and image recognition systems at multiple airports and railwaystations. A high-tech enterprise, CloudWalk Technology, has engaged with authorities in the mega Skynet Project to identify pedestrians and vehicles, worked with 23provinces and helped arrest almost 2,600 suspects. Hikvision, another producerof AI-powered systems and front-end cameras, also partnerswith local governments to provide facialrecognition and big data analysis.

2018 is a good year for AI enthusiasts inChina. Smart China Expo planned for August in the Chongqing municipality is expecting to “acceleratethe development of China’s AI industry”. The event will be marked withcompetitions, exhibitions and thematic activities aimed at integration ofinternet and big data. Later in September, Shanghai will host AI World 2018conference with the theme of “New Era of Artificial Intelligence”. Specialactivities to boost investment and research are planned for the event. Thecity’s deputy mayor believes that local AI industry will develop after furtherimprovement of intellectual property protection.

Since the State Council issued an AI development planlast year, China’s rapidly developing tech industry is fueling the massivegrowth of this new age technology. Latest privacy standards adopted in May anda new cybersecurity law are some of the measures taken toregulate its growth. While there are no reports of any large-scale data leak inthe country, citizens’ find their confidence in AI improving with major playersintending to provide opensource access to their platforms.

Chinese civil aviation industry going stronger than you think

Ashraf Qureshi. 

In under 4 years, China will be the world’s largestcivil aviation market. At least that is what International TransportAssociation thinks. There are figures to backthis claim. And they are being issued by not one but multiple internationalentities.

Considered the Oscars of the aviation industry,Skytrax World Airline Awards this month placed China’s Hainan Airlines in the global top 10 – second year in a row.Hainan also bagged the Britain-based consultancy’s title of a Five Star Airlinefor eighth consecutive time. As 24.45 million travelers polled by Skytrax can’tbe wrong, China’s aviation industry is aiming for nothing short of the sky.

A major boom in China’s aviation industry has beencaused by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – a mega project aimed at revivingancient trading routes. International players are cooperating with localmanufacturers on several fronts to benefit from new opportunities offered byBRI. Lithuania’s Avia is one such group that is initiating partnerships with Chinesefirmsto provide aviation-related facilities. Besides focusing on training, the groupintends to carry out maintenance and repair operations along the BRI route. Itssister company AviaAM Leasing concurrently has engaged with Henan CivilAviation Development to lease 14 airliners.

Chinese manufactured aircraft are in demand as well among the BRIparticipating countries. 57 aircraft of the type MA60/600 turboprop have beenexported to 18 BRI countries and 103 of the Y-12 series planes have beendelivered to 28. The aircraft exported by China are not only being utilized forcivil aviation but they have also found their usage in fields like training andemergency rescue.

Other locally manufactured aircraft undergoing finaltesting include a large passenger jet, an amphibious aircraft, and alightweight sports airplane. Comac C919, China’s first homegrown trunkjetliner, is planned to hit the market by 2021. Already bagging 815 ordersfrom across the globe, the aircraft is a result of Comac’s cooperation with localgovernments and institutions for provision of industrial bases and conductingflight tests.

AG600 is expected to attempt its first watertakeoff in a couple of months. It is the world’s largest amphibious aircraft andis developed by Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC). AG600 will bethe third member of China’s “large aircraft family” after the Y-20 freighterand C919.

Another locally manufactured aircraft raising the baris the lightweight ‘wind feather’ sportsmachine. This is the first Chinese airplane built entirely with domesticintellectual property. A product of Shanghai Aokesai, the aircraft hassuccessfully received type certification from civil aviation administration andis ready for export. Orders from 11 countries, amounting to an encouraging 200million yuan have already been placed.

Chinese aviation industry is also expanding globally.AVIC is establishing a new company in London to produce cabin interiorsfor international aviation giants including Airbus and Boeing. At the sametime, a range of other aviation-related agreements with the UK demonstrate thegrowing level of collaboration. Chinese ambassador to the UK recently talkedabout upgrading the UK-Chinaair corridor which is expected to reach 150 direct flights every week through anagreement reached under 9th China-UK Economic and Financial Dialogue.

The propitious future of Chinese aviation industry canbe gauged from the fact that a newly revised negativelistallowing foreign access to local manufacturing industry includes majorconcessions for the aviation sector. Foreign ownership limitations on severaltypes of aircraft have been removed and have thus triggered the interest ofnumerous international companies.

Airbus, which has delivered over 370 aircraft sinceits Tianjin based Forward Assembly Line (FAL) went operational in 2008, nowplans to increase the facility’sproduction capacity of four A320s per month to six per month. The FAL is a jointventure of Airbus, AVIC, and Tianjin Free Trade Zone.

The industry is generating a major wave of innovation.National Centre for Nanoscience and Technology of China has teamed up withAirbus to jointly establish aresearch facility for application of nanotechnology in the field of aviation.Airbus is also establishing a globalinnovation center in China. The company plans to use it for acceleratingR&D and utilize the innovative environment of Shenzhen to cultivate anintegrated hardware and software ecosystem.

In less than 2 years, more than 500 generalaviation airports will be dotting China’s map. During the same period, thefleet of general aviation aircraft will expand to over 5,000. Boeing meanwhile forecasts that China will be inducting6,300 new aircraft by the year 2037. This is an unprecedented expansion –something the aviation industry of the entire globe needs to align with. It isa calling for local and international investors to come forward and be a partof the success.