The war in Libya might escalate beyond its borders

 Javed Ali.

The war in Libya is showing clear signs of escalation. As the North African nation struggles to unite under a single government, external factors are likely to push the conflict beyond its borders. 

The reason, like most modern wars, is about energy. Eastern Mediterranean Sea is a gas-rich region marred in territorial conflicts between Turkey, Greece, and Libya that have hindered the utilization of the wealth that lies underneath. 

Turkey’s Maritime Deal with Libya

Turkey and Libya signed a maritime deal with Libya in late November 2019 redefining boundaries of their territorial waters. This came after Turkey and Libya voiced concerns that regional countries were leaving them out from benefiting from the energy resources of the Mediterranean region. 

The internationally recognized Libyan government is facing a civil war from the eastern part of the country where a parallel government with significant military prowess is challenging its authority. This has left it with a diminished ability to protect its interests beyond its land borders. 

Sharing the resource exploitation concerns, the Libyan government reached out to Turkey and the maritime deal was born. 

What Sparked the Turkish-Libyan Deal?

Turkey’s fears heightened when Israel, Greece and Greek Cypriot Administration signed an energy deal in November 2018 that would result in the construction of a $7 million EastMed pipeline. The pipeline will originate from what Turkey and Libya consider Libyan maritime zone and culminate at the Italian city of Otranto. 

Seeing the Turkish-Libyan deal, Greece accelerated efforts to materialize the pipeline and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ office revealed that he along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades will sign the agreement on 2 Jan 2020. Italy’s nod to the modalities of the pipeline though remains unclear. 

The tension between NATO Allies Turkey and Greece

Turkey’s maritime deal with Libya brought it at odds with NATO ally Greece. At the 70th anniversary summit of the organization last month, Greece was visibly infuriated and took an exception to the new demarcation of Turkish and Libyan maritime territories. 

Ever since, Greece has been on a diplomatic offensive. It has dispatched letters to the UN explaining its objections and Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias toured Arab capitals for gathering support. 

Though it is unlikely that Greece will be able to break the status quo between Arab states and Turkey that exists over an array of issues related to the Middle East. So far only Egypt has been the only Arab nation objecting to the maritime deal. Egypt’s naval forces also conducted military drills that coincided with the rise in tensions with Turkey and Libya. 

Turkey’s Military Pact with Libya

The war in Libya has ensued since the fall of its longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi has torn the country among forces loyal to the government and the eastern Libyan National Army (LNA). 

Turkey sides with the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and signed a military cooperation pact last month which the Turkish parliament has now ratified. The pact allows Turkey to deploy its troops at the request of Libya where the threat of a “decisive battle” is looming from the opposition forces of the LNA. The deployment is expected to be carried out by January 2020.

Russian ‘Wagner’ Mercenaries in the War in Libya

Russia and Turkey find each other at opposing sides in Libya. While Turkey is supporting the GNA, Russia is maintaining a channel with the LNA. The situation recently got complicated when the US objected to the presence of the Russian mercenary force Wagner Group among the ranks of LNA. 

Wagner forces are a Russian mercenary group which the Russian government denies control over. The group rose to prominence during Eastern Ukranian conflict where pro-Russian forces were up in arms against Ukraine. 

Although Turkey and Russia are cooperating at various fronts in the Middle East, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan came down hard upon the presence of the Wagner group in Libya. He cited the group’s presence in the war in Libya as the reason for a possible Turkish military deployment. He has vowed to take up the issue with Russian President Vladimir Putin when the latter visits Turkey in early 2020.    

Fighters loyal to the GNA engage in a gun fight as the war in Libya ensues (AFP Photo)

Arms Embargo Lifted from Cyprus

As if the drums of war beating in the Mediterranean were not enough, the US Congress voted to lift the arms embargo from Cyprus in mid-December 2019 that had been in place since 1987. Imposed initially to discourage an arms race in the region, the embargo was one of the reasons the division of Cyprus had not escalated tensions between Turkey and Greece.

Turkey was clearly infuriated. Its foreign ministry issued a statement that the move will be a ‘dangerous escalation‘. This comes at a time when Turkey and the US are not at the best of terms. Turkey’s decision to move ahead with its purchase of the S-400 missile system from Russia strained its relations with the US and it was kicked out of the F-35 stealth fighter jet program. 

Turkish Drone in Cyprus

At the same time, the deployment of a Turkish drone in Cyprus has raised the apprehensions of the Greek government. Although Turkey states that it is for the purpose of hydrocarbon exploration but not all in Greece are convinced. 

According to AFP, it is a military Bayraktar TB2 drone. The drone’s deployment comes in light of Greece controlled Cyprus’ acquisition of Israeli Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in October 2019 for surveillance purposes.

Stationed at Gecitkale airport, the Turkish drone has started its flights over the eastern Mediterranean. 

Greek Foreign Minister’s Visit to Rebel Libyan Region

Amid the rising tension, Greek Foreign Minister visited the rebel-controlled eastern Libya. He met with commander Khalifa Haftar who has continuously stepped up opposition to the internationally recognized GNA. 

A strong reaction to the visit emanated from Libya’s Turkey aligned GNA as the visit was apparently aimed precisely at that. GNA is not in a position to react to such foreign bids and Greece used the visit to convey a message that it was prepared to escalate while defending its interests. 

The Italian Factor

Italy is the third NATO member that considers itself an affectee in the brewing conflict. Ever since ending its colonial hold, Italy considers Libya its natural domain. The growing Turkish influence has thrown Italy on its toes. Italy and Turkey have been relatively friendly in recent times, apart from Italian opposition to Turkish offensive in Syria. 

In the rift between Greece and Turkey, Italian interests lie with those of Greece since it is in the final stages of approving the EastMed pipeline. At the same time, it has been cautious in stepping into the Turkey-Libya deal. Italy appointed a special diplomatic envoy to Libya only after the deal was finalized and admitted that it had been slow in responding to LNA’s assault on western Libya’s GNA. 

Forecast 

The war in Libya is morphing into a multi-national conflict. Sucking in Turkey, Greece, and Italy – all NATO members – the situation is posing a threat to their military alliance and raising fears of a new conflict in the MENA region. 

The region is still struggling with the power vacuum formed after the Arab Spring that deposed several dictators. There are little signs of its return to normalcy. If the Libyan conflict escalates beyond its borders, it will give birth to a new proxy war that will disturb the status quo that the Mediterranean region has enjoyed so far. 

Turkey's place in a 70 year old NATO

Saleem Zahid. 

As a heated NATO summit concludes in London, Turkey’s place in the 70-year-old organization has become a matter of international debate. The issue frequently pops up in discussions since the country is at loggerheads with several other member states of NATO over issues related to security.

Why is Turkey in NATO?

Turkey joined NATO in the year 1952 as the organization was expanding in membership and influence. It provided an opportunity for Turkey to extend its security expectations and make meaningful contributions in transatlantic initiatives. 

Turkish and US soldiers take part in a joint exercise

NATO was formed when the Cold War was still brewing and a considerable threat of conflict between the communist and the capitalist blocs prevailed. To safeguard the southeastern border of the capitalists, Turkey joined in to play an instrumental role. 

Later in the post Cold War era, Turkey progressed NATO’s interests in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo and Afghanistan and made significant contributions with the formation of the NATO Response Force (NRF). 

Today Turkey acts as the bridge between the primarily west-oriented NATO with the eastern and the Muslim world. In post 9/11 years when religious misconceptions have led the world into a number of wars, this bridge is extremely important. Turkey’s influence can be pivotal to the efforts of de-radicalization in parts of the world where its leadership is viewed with respect. 

The Kurdish Bone of Contention

Many of the Kurdish people living in parts of Syria and Turkey have long aspired for a separate country for themselves. When the formal boundaries of Syria and Iraq became blurry with the events leading to the rise of ISIS and the resulting independent multinational operations, Kurdish factions like the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and People’s Protection Units (YPG) sprang to an organized defense.

The Kurdish YPG group in Syria

Turkey, in very clear terms, regards these factions as terrorists groups that harm its security interests and intend to undermine its sovereignty. Rest of the NATO countries, however, do not share this view. 

A Unilateral Offensive in Syria

Faced with a growing population of Syrian refugees at home and a threat of Kurdish fighters on the border, Turkey decided to establish a safe zone in Syria along its border to settle Syrian refugees that have become a divisive issue in Turkey’s politics and society. 

Not finding support for the initiative, Turkey continued to raise its concerns until the United States, one of the main backers of the Kurdish fighting groups, gave way. Green-lighting Turkey for its offensive into Syria, the US pulled back its forces from the Syrian border with Turkey and literally abandoned the Kurds. 

Turkish military vehicles drive into Syria

The US move came after a one-on-one phone interaction between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and US President Donald Trump, leaving other NATO allies flabbergasted. NATO countries saw the initial resistance shown by the US in retreating from the border areas of Syria as its unwillingness to agree with the Turkish plan in the absence of consultations with other alliance members. 

But with the Turkish military’s offensive into Syria, cracks in NATO were out in the open.

NATO’s Baltic Defense Plan and Turkey’s Threat to its Blockage

Turkey still expects NATO to regard the threats it perceives from the Kurdish fighting groups. It has been asking the organization to recognize the YPG as “terrorists”. Most members are not just hesitant in doing so but are even actively collaborating with YPG in the fight against ISIS. 

If NATO fails to regard them as terrorists, Turkey has threatened to use its veto to block NATO’s plan for the defense of Baltic states. Russian actions in Crimea and Ukraine have forced the alliance to secure Eastern Europe where the Nordic and Baltic states are increasingly becoming dependent on the West for security. 

US troops in Poland as part of NATO deployment

The events culminating in the impeachment process of President Trump, too, have their origins in this region. Since Ukraine is banking on the US and NATO against the posturing by Russia, Trump’s attempt to hold military aid for Ukraine proved counterproductive which, after Turkey’s threat to block the Baltic defense plan, has further heightened fears of a conflict. 

Then there is the question of Poland facing the brunt of Russian warnings over the presence of US troops on its territory. How exactly might Turkey respond to an actual build-up of a Russian threat for Poland cannot be ascertained with surety. 

The ‘Brain Death’ of NATO and that of Macron

The war in Syria has divided allies like none other. French President Emmanuel Macron has been especially vocal against Turkish unilateral operation in Syria. Commenting on the lack of coordination over the offensive among member states of NATO, he declared the organization “brain dead“. 

President Erdoğan took an exception to the remark. Slamming the French President, he said that it was, in fact, Macron who was suffering brain death. Happening days before the 70th-anniversary summit of NATO, the spat spent clear signals that the event was not going to sail smooth. 

Harsh exchange of statements ensued between France and Turkey days before NATO’s 70th anniversary summit (File Photo)

And just as it was predicted, President Trump joined the foray in the midst of the summit, standing alongside NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, and called President Emmanuel’s remarks “very, very nasty“. Perhaps Turkey had not conducted the Syria operation without coordinating with at least one other NATO member. 

Turkey’s Spat with Another NATO Member – Greece

Ever since NATO ousted Muammar Gaddafi, Libya’s ruler of 42 years, the country hasn’t had a respectable form of stability. Eight years later, Turkey signed a maritime demarcation agreement with Libya to retain economic rights in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. 

What followed was a complaint from Greece accusing Turkey of encroaching on its sovereignty under the deal with Libya. The energy-rich eastern Mediterranean has been a source of contention between Turkey and Greece where the former does not recognize Cyprus as a state. Greece brought the Turkey-Libya deal to the summit with hopes of reaching a middle ground. 

Turkey has signed a maritime demarcation agreement with Libya for rights in the eastern Mediterranean Sea

Purchase of Russian Military Hardware

The complex conflict in the Middle East that has pitched allies against allies has severely affected NATO. With diverging interests, heated debates and public outcries against each other were very much expected at the summit. The US, supporting Turkey over its latest Syrian offensive, is at odds with Turkey’s decision to purchase Russian S-400 missiles. 

Expelling it from the F-35 stealth fighter jet program, the US is giving stern warnings to Turkey if it continues to move ahead with the purchase of Russian military hardware that the US deems incompatible with NATO equipment. 

Russian S-400 missile launcher at a military parade in Moscow

Meanwhile, the use of Russian equipment by Turkey is making other NATO members uncomfortable in countering the threat they are teaming up against. Turkey presently faces the threat of US sanctions on completion of the multi-billion dollar deal with Russia, if it does not lock up its already delivered pack of S-400 systems and allow US technicians to frequently inspect them. 

Will Turkey Stay in NATO?

The NATO charter mentions guidelines on including new members but it is quiet on expelling existing ones. So the calls to kick Turkey out of NATO may find ears to land on but they will not find a vehicle to execute such a move. 

Turkey itself would never intend to leave NATO. It terms NATO a part of its global identity. It is a means for Turkey to project its soft power in regions where the alliance operates. Whereas, NATO needs Turkey to extend its influence where western nations traditionally find it hard to. Despite their growing differences, the common grounds are far overshadowing. So in the near future, there is no chance of NATO and Turkey parting ways. 

The Syria safe zone is a master stroke by Erdogan

Faheem Sarwar. 

With the establishment of the Syria safe zone around the corner, center stage of the Middle East’s geopolitics is neither with Saudi Arabia nor with Iran. It’s with Turkey. President Tayyip Erdogan has played a move that has the potential of solving the eight-year-old riddle that Syria has been.

After intense closed-door negotiations with and public calls to the United States, Turkey convinced President Donald Trump to give way for a patch of a safe zone in Syria along the Turkish border. Creation of the zone is aimed at housing Syrian refugees that are presently living in Turkey and have been a source of social and political resentment there.

When the US pulled back from the designated safe zone and literally abandoned its longtime Kurdish allies, condemnation poured in from the world over. Condemnation for the US for leaving its partners in the lurch and condemnation for Turkey for launching a supposedly brutal offensive.

Turkish and local troops in Syria safe zone (AP Photo)

While the dissection of the US abandonment continues, Turkish assault has been swift and conclusive. Turkey threw in a show of force and the Kurds were quick to make peace with the Syrian government to evade further fighting.

The first censure Turkey received after entering Syria was, ironically, from the US which threatened to obliterate its economy lest it continues with the attack. The threat remained shallow for some time until the US announced sanctions against Turkey. But as things turned out, the Europeans weren’t willing to discontinue weapon supply to Turkey. The US sanctions too were eventually lifted right under the directive of Trump.

With the US out of the way, Turkey had Russia right by its side. Hours-long one-on-one negotiations between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin resulted in a definite and to-the-point agreement on the way forward for the Syria safe zone. Militaries of both countries are now planning for joint patrols in areas where, not long ago, the US military operated with the Kurdish fighters.

Syria, remarkably, has allowed Turkey’s dominance in its own territory. Though the Syrian government, with its compromised sovereignty, is still not in a position to dictate who can do what in its pre-war borders.

Turkey has appeared as a clearly dominant player in the Middle East after almost a decade of fighting that saw allies pitched against allies in battles that baffled traditional approaches of cooperation in conflict situations.

The first significant expansion of Turkey’s territorial influence since the Ottoman empire highlights the growing sway the country has acquired in global politics. It also displays the present Turkish government’s ability to solve complex geopolitical problems when its domestic and foreign policies head in the same direction.